NRRP: WITH THE SIXTH REVISION, NET BORROWING IMPROVES BY AROUND €4.8 BILLION IN 2026, €0.7 BILLION IN 2027, AND €81 MILLION IN 2028
€23.8 BILLION CAN BE SPENT BEYOND AUGUST 2026
- A total of 174 measures are involved, with the overall financial allocation unchanged at €194.4 billion.
- The effect on the current year mainly depends on the replacement of certain measures with interventions already implemented in previous years using resources outside the NRRP.
- At the end of the NRRP, differences may emerge between funds received and actual expenditure.
13 February 2026 | The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) publishes a Flash note on the sixth revision of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) and its effects on net borrowing over the three-year period 2026-28. The revision, approved by the Council of the European Union on 27 November 2025, involved a total of 174 measures, through financial reallocations, mergers, cancellations, and the introduction of new interventions. The overall financial envelope of the Plan remains unchanged at €194.4 billion, of which €71.8 billion in grants and €122.6 billion in loans.
According to the Technical Report accompanying the 2026 Budget Law, the lower expenditure resulting from the defunding of certain measures (around €14.2 billion) is offset by higher spending, amounting to approximately €7.8 billion, for new interventions introduced in the Plan (largely through the creation of new facilities), and around €6.5 billion due to the inclusion in the NRRP of measures whose expenditure had already been financed under existing legislation through non-European resources, mostly incurred in previous years.
The revision of the Plan leads to an improvement in net borrowing equal to €4.783 billion in 2026, €0.727 billion in 2027, and €81 million in 2028. The particularly significant impact on the 2026 balance is due to lower expenditure of €5.7 billion, largely associated with the defunding of measures with planned spending in that year (notably Transition 5.0) and their replacement with interventions already carried out in previous years financed through national resources outside the NRRP (notably Transition 4.0), as well as to lower revenues of €0.92 billion.
Based on the available information, the revision produces a positive balance mainly for Mission 1 (Digitalisation, innovation, competitiveness and culture), with an increase of €4.4 billion, and for Mission 3 (Infrastructure for sustainable mobility), with an increase of €1.2 billion. The other Missions record a neutral or negative balance. In particular, Mission 7 (REPowerEU) experiences the largest contraction, with a negative balance of €4 billion, mainly due to the scaling back of Transition 5.0. Mission 2 (Green Revolution) also records a reduction of €1 billion, reflecting cuts to funds initially allocated to renewable energy for energy communities.
Overall, €23.8 billion is allocated to measures that allow for the deferral of expenditure beyond the deadline of the Plan (August 2026). As of 30 January, spending related to these measures amounts to just under €2.3 billion.
The use of facilities and financial instruments leads to two paths that may follow different timelines: on the one hand, compliance with milestones and targets, which is necessary to obtain disbursements from European institutions; on the other hand, the actual implementation of measures, which determines the evolution of expenditure and depends on administrative capacity. Considering also that failure to achieve a milestone or target does not require the repayment of all funds already received, but only a partial reduction of the corresponding instalment according to criteria defined by the European Commission, it cannot be ruled out that, at the end of the NRRP, differences—either positive or negative—may emerge between the total amount received from the EU and the actual expenditure incurred in implementing the planned measures.
